August 15, 2018
Visible women
How much does having a female leader help shrink the gender gap for rank-and-file positions?
French President Francois Hollande Chancellor of Federal Republic of Germany Angela Merkel and President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko during a joint briefing in Berlin in 2015.
palinchak/Bigstock
Even before the year began, pundits declared 2018 would be “the year of the woman.”
A wave of female candidates has inundated political races around the US with hopes to upend the gender imbalance in government.
Victories in the most high-profile races could have a real impact on other women’s political candidacy, as well as have ripple effects beyond the communities they serve, according to research that appears in the latest issue of American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.
“Supporting women to enter and win races for important and exposed offices may have considerable spillover effects for the success of women running for rank-and-file political offices,” said Zohal Hessami, who co-authored the paper with Thushyanthan Baskaran, in an email interview with the AEA.
Despite the progress being made, women are significantly underrepresented in leadership, and experts have debated how or when that will change. There was another “year of the woman,” more than a quarter century ago, and yet gender disparities persist in politics and the larger culture. In 2016, less than a quarter of all national parliamentarians were female and there were just nine who were the head of government. Women in the US still make up only one in five elected officials on Capitol Hill.
Supporting women to enter and win races for important and exposed offices may have considerable spillover effects for the success of women running for rank-and-file political offices.
Zohal Hessami
The findings by Hessami and Baskaran highlight the importance of women winning high office in helping close the gender gap.
They studied data for more than 100,000 candidates in municipal elections in Germany. They found that the election of a female mayor led to a 4 percentage point higher share of women on the local council. What’s more, voters in neighboring cities took notice. Women running for office adjacent to a place with a female mayor performed better than candidates next to towns led by men, resulting in total gain of about 3 council seats held by women in the combined surrounding towns.
Notably, this was in Germany, where Angela Merkel holds the highest office and the share of women on local councils is around 20-30 percent.
“Compared to many other countries, female representation is therefore relatively high at the German municipal level,” Hessami said. “Accordingly, there is less room for a female mayor to be effective. The effect would presumably be (even) larger in countries with stronger biases against female politicians.”
Gaining ground
Women have been winning more share of elected political bodies around the world. The map shows the share of seats in national parliaments that belong to women since 1990.
Slide to view the share for each year
1990 2002 2007 2012 2017
Political newcomers get a bigger boost, Hessami said. One possible explanation is that established candidates are less likely to be held back by any generic anti-female voter bias. They should be well-known to voters and have already proven themselves.
It’s possible that having a female mayor simply boosted turnout by more female-friendly voters, but Hessami and Baskaran think it actually is driven more by changing attitudes toward women.
Aggregate turnout did not change in response to a female mayor. This contradicts the theory unless the number of new “pro-female voters” exactly matched the number of old “anti-female voters” who stayed home.
“Highly unlikely,” Hessami said.
They also suspect that the effects would grow with even more high-profile offices. A female governor, senator, or president could have even larger effects than a mayor on the share of women elected to office.
The US heads into November’s midterm elections with women seeking offices up and down the ballot, from local school board races to US Senator. If they have the kind of success that many predict, this research suggests that 2018 won’t be the only “year of the woman.” In fact, there could be many more.
♦
"Does the Election of a Female Leader Clear the Way for More Women in Politics?" appears in the August issue of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.