Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around Elections
AbstractSurvey respondents who associate themselves with the "winning team" in an election, substantially increase their expectations for their stock market, but only modestly increase their expected household economic well-being. The impact of the election outcome on the "losing team" is comparatively muted. Yet, the dramatic shifts in survey responses from "winning team" respondents do not manifest themselves in their actual behavior as revealed by their online search behavior, in contrast to members of the "losing team," whose decline in durable goods purchases correlate with their stated economic expectations. Combining novel survey data and search, this study provides a uniquely meaningful comparison of stated attitudes with actual behaviors.
CitationHuberman, Gur, Tobias Konitzer, Masha Krupenkin, David Rothschild, and Shawndra Hill. 2018. "Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around Elections." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 108: 597-602. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20181092
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D84 Expectations; Speculations
- G14 Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading