Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 4,
no. 3, July 2012
(pp. 66-95)
Abstract
This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries. (JEL E23, O13, Q54, Q56)Citation
Dell, Melissa, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken. 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4 (3): 66-95. DOI: 10.1257/mac.4.3.66Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- O13 Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
- Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters; Global Warming
- Q56 Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
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