This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest
payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities. (JEL E23, E31, E43, G12, H63)
Hall, George J., and Thomas J. Sargent.
"Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics."
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt