American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Disentangling COVID-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 15,
no. 4, October 2023
(pp. 217–48)
Abstract
We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and persistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. These shocks are the main drivers of the pandemic, explaining between 20 and 60 percent of the average and historical variability in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. The policy trade-off associated to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 1 pp less economic mobility per day for 8 percent fewer deaths after 3 months.Citation
Camehl, Annika, and Malte Rieth. 2023. "Disentangling COVID-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 15 (4): 217–48. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210071Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C43 Index Numbers and Aggregation; leading indicators
- H51 National Government Expenditures and Health
- I12 Health Behavior
- I18 Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration