Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
AbstractSea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.
CitationDesmet, Klaus, Robert E. Kopp, Scott A. Kulp, Dávid Krisztián Nagy, Michael Oppenheimer, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, and Benjamin H. Strauss. 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13 (2): 444-86. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180366
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- F01 Global Outlook
- Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
- Q56 Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth