We study the currency composition of sovereign debt in emerging economies through the lens of a model in which the government lacks commitment regarding debt and monetary policy. High levels of debt in local currency give rise to incentives to dilute debt repayment through currency depreciation. Governments tilt the currency composition of debt toward foreign currency to avoid inflationary costs and real exchange rate distortions, at the expense of forgoing the hedging properties of local currency debt. Our quantitative model is used to shed light on the recent dynamics of the currency composition of debt and on its cyclical behavior.
Ottonello, Pablo, and Diego J. Perez.
"The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt."
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
International Lending and Debt Problems
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt