This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the probability model of the underlying state of the borrowing economy is misspecified. Consequently, investors demand higher returns on their bond holdings to compensate for the default risk in the context of uncertainty. In contrast with the existing literature on sovereign default, we match the bond spreads dynamics observed in the data together with other business cycle features for Argentina, while preserving the default frequency at historical low levels.
Pouzo, Demian, and Ignacio Presno.
"Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia."
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
International Lending and Debt Problems
Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance