This website uses cookies.

By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance and traffic. For more information on our use of cookies, please see our Privacy Policy.

  1. Home
  2. Journals
  3. Journal of Economic Perspectives
  4. Winter 1997
  5. Time to Ditch the NAIRU

Time to Ditch the NAIRU

Download Full Text PDF
(Complimentary)

Abstract

The concept of a natural rate of unemployment, or nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), remains controversial after twenty-five years. This essay presents a brief for no-confidence, in four parts. First, the theoretical case for the natural rate is not compelling. Second, the evidence for a vertical Phillips curve and the associated accelerationist hypothesis that lowering unemployment past the NAIRU leads to unacceptable acceleration of inflation is weak. Third, economists have failed to reach professional consensus on estimating the NAIRU. Fourth, adherence to the concept as a guide to policy has major social costs but negligible benefits.

Citation

Galbraith, James K. 1997. "Time to Ditch the NAIRU." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11 (1): 93-108. DOI: 10.1257/jep.11.1.93

JEL Classification

  • E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital
  • E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
There are no comments for this article.
Login to Comment