Econometrics and Presidential Elections
AbstractThis paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast.
CitationFair, Ray C. 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10 (3): 89-102. DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.3.89
- D72 Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- E17 General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation