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  4. March 2022
  5. Epidemics, Inequality, and Poverty in Preindustrial and Early Industrial Times

Epidemics, Inequality, and Poverty in Preindustrial and Early Industrial Times

  • Guido Alfani
Journal of Economic Literature
vol. 60, no. 1, March 2022
(pp. 3-40)
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Abstract

Recent research has explored the distributive consequences of major historical epidemics, and the current crisis triggered by COVID-19 prompts us to look at the past for insights about how pandemics can affect inequalities in income, wealth, and health. The fourteenth-century Black Death, which is usually believed to have led to a significant reduction in economic inequality, has attracted the greatest attention. However, the picture becomes much more complex if other epidemics are considered. This article covers the worst epidemics of preindustrial times, from the Plague of Justinian of 540–41 to the last great European plagues of the seventeenth century, as well as the cholera waves of the nineteenth. It shows how the distributive outcomes of lethal epidemics do not only depend upon mortality rates, but are mediated by a range of factors, chief among them the institutional framework in place at the onset of each crisis. It then explores how past epidemics affected poverty, arguing that highly lethal epidemics could reduce its prevalence through two deeply different mechanisms: redistribution toward the poor or extermination of the poor. It concludes by recalling the historical connection between the progressive weakening and spacing in time of lethal epidemics and improvements in life expectancy, and by discussing how epidemics affected inequality in health and living standards.

Citation

Alfani, Guido. 2022. "Epidemics, Inequality, and Poverty in Preindustrial and Early Industrial Times." Journal of Economic Literature, 60 (1): 3-40. DOI: 10.1257/jel.20201640

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D31 Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
  • I12 Health Behavior
  • I14 Health and Inequality
  • I30 Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General
  • J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
  • J31 Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
  • N30 Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: General, International, or Comparative