Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review
- (pp. 478-539)
Abstract
Financial market volatility is an important input for investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. The emphasis of this review article is on forecasting instead of modelling; it compares the volatility forecasting findings in 93 papers published and written in the last two decades. Provided in this paper as well are volatility definitions, insights into problematic issues of forecast evaluation, data frequency, extreme values and the measurement of "actual" volatility. We compare volatility forecasting performance of two main approaches; historical volatility models and volatility implied from options. Forecasting results are compared across different asset classes and geographical regions.Citation
Poon, Ser-Huang, and Clive W.J. Granger. 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review ." Journal of Economic Literature, 41 (2): 478-539. DOI: 10.1257/002205103765762743JEL Classification
- C53 Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- G10 General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)