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  4. Winter 2026
  5. Global Labor Mobility between Shrinking and Growing Labor Forces

Journal of Economic Perspectives

ISSN 0895-3309 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7965 (Online)

Global Labor Mobility between Shrinking and Growing Labor Forces

  • Lant Pritchett
Journal of Economic Perspectives
vol. 40, no. 1, Winter 2026
(pp. 71–92)
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Abstract

Falling fertility and improved mortality create a powerful and inexorable demographic arithmetic of ageing in the coming decades around the world, with three patterns. The richest countries, along with China and the Former Soviet Union, will see absolute declines in the labor force aged (15–64) population and absolute rises in those 65 plus. All major developing country regions except for Africa: Latin America, South-East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, and West Asia/Middle East, will experience modest labor force growth to 2050 (less than 30 percent) aged combined with rapid growth of those over 65 (doubling or tripling). The fall in fertility in Africa (Sub-Saharan and North) started later and has fallen much less and hence, in standard scenarios for 2050, Africa will account for 80 percent of all global net growth in the world's labor force aged. A fundamental feature of the global economy over the medium-run to 2050 is that that highest labor productivity countries will have absolutely fewer native-born workers and Africa, home to many of the world's lowest productivity countries, will have 800 million more labor force aged. The combination makes possible gains on the order of trillions of dollars to policies that creating legal pathways to allow people, particularly youth, to move from low productivity, labor abundance places to high productivity, labor scarcity places. But, so far, politics has not found the way to "yes" for this win-win scenario.

Citation

Pritchett, Lant. 2026. "Global Labor Mobility between Shrinking and Growing Labor Forces." Journal of Economic Perspectives 40 (1): 71–92. DOI: 10.1257/jep.20251461

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • F22 International Migration
  • J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
  • J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
  • J31 Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
  • J82 Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition
  • O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration