Journal of Economic Perspectives
ISSN 0895-3309 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7965 (Online)
Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition
Journal of Economic Perspectives
(pp. 47–70)
(Complimentary)
Abstract
Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses.Citation
Gobbi, Paula E., Anne Hannusch, and Pauline Rossi. 2026. "Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition." Journal of Economic Perspectives 40 (1): 47–70. DOI: 10.1257/jep.20251460Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
- I12 Health Behavior
- J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J12 Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure; Domestic Abuse
- J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- Z13 Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification