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  5. The Gender Gap in Confidence: Expected but Not Accounted For

American Economic Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

The Gender Gap in Confidence: Expected but Not Accounted For

  • Christine L. Exley
  • Kirby Nielsen
American Economic Review
vol. 114, no. 3, March 2024
(pp. 851–85)
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Abstract

We investigate how the gender gap in confidence affects the views that evaluators (e.g., employers) hold about men and women. We find the confidence gap is contagious, causing evaluators to form overly pessimistic beliefs about women. This result arises even though the confidence gap is expected and even though the confidence gap shouldn't be contagious if evaluators are Bayesian. Only an intervention that facilitates Bayesian updating proves (somewhat) effective. Additional results highlight how similar findings follow even when there is no room for discriminatory motives or differences in priors because evaluators are asked about arbitrary, rather than gender-specific, groups.

Citation

Exley, Christine L., and Kirby Nielsen. 2024. "The Gender Gap in Confidence: Expected but Not Accounted For." American Economic Review, 114 (3): 851–85. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20221413

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D82 Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
  • D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
  • D91 Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
  • J16 Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
  • J22 Time Allocation and Labor Supply
  • M51 Personnel Economics: Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions