American Economic Review: Vol. 97 No. 1 (March 2007)
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The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk
Lustig, Hanno, and Adrien Verdelhan. 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk." American Economic Review, 97(1): 89-117.
Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Domestic investors earn negative excess returns on low interest rate currency portfolios and positive excess returns on high interest rate currency portfolios. Because high interest rate currencies depreciate on average when domestic consumption growth is low and low interest rate currencies appreciate under the same conditions, low interest rate currencies provide domestic investors with a hedge against domestic aggregate consumption growth risk. (JEL E21, E43, F31, G11)
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