Labor Market Shocks and Immigration Enforcement

By Sergio Barrera, Brianna Felegi, and Sarina Heron

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We study the effects of labor market shocks on immigration enforcement by evaluating the impact of the Great Recession on the likelihood that commuting zones partner with immigration authorities through 287(g) agreements and early adoption of Secure Commu...

Can Incorrect Beliefs about the Racial Composition of Welfare and Unemployment Insurance Beneficiaries Be Changed?

By Jeffrey Carpenter, Jakina Debnam Guzman, Peter Hans Matthews, and Erin L. Wolcott

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Some argue that support for the social safety net in the United States is influenced by beliefs about the beneficiaries' race. Information treatments have the potential to change these beliefs, but for them to be policy relevant, their effects must last b...

Learning from Job Offers about Labor Supply Constraints: A Barrier for Women without Work Experience

By Lisa Ho, Suhani Jalota, and Anahita Karandikar

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Labor market surveys often include individuals outside the workforce, but respondents who lack work experience may have inaccurate beliefs about their labor supply preferences and constraints. Using data from an incentivized job preferences elicitation in...

Parental Time Allocation and Gender Disparities: The Role of Child Tax Credit Reform

By Tennecia Dacass, Elif B. Dilden, and Yang Jiao

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

The Child Tax Credit (CTC) plays a critical role in reducing child poverty and promoting parental workforce participation. However, its effects on how parents allocate their time remain insufficiently studied. This research fills this gap by analyzing the...

What Happened to the U.S. Employment Miracle [part 2]

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What Happened to the U.S. Employment Miracle [part 1]

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Equity and Efficiency in Unemployment Insurance

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New Gig Work or Changes in Reporting? Understanding Self-Employment Trends in Tax Data

By Andrew Garin, Emilie Jackson, and Dmitri Koustas

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, July 2025

We show that increases in the share of workers reporting self-employment to the IRS are not associated with changes in firm-reported payments to "gig" and other contract workers after 2005 but are driven primarily by self-reported earnings of individuals ...

Skill Depreciation during Unemployment: Evidence from Panel Data

By Jonathan Cohen, Andrew C. Johnston, and Attila Lindner

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, July 2025

We examine the depreciation of skills among unemployed German workers using a panel of skill measures linked to administrative data. Both the reemployment hazard and reemployment earnings steadily decline with unemployment duration. Indicators of depressi...

Background Matters, but Not Whether Parents Are Immigrants: Outcomes of Children Born in Denmark

By Mathias Fjællegaard Jensen and Alan Manning

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, July 2025

In Europe, the children of migrants often have worse economic outcomes than those with local-born parents. This paper shows that children born in Denmark with immigrant parents (first-generation locals) have lower earnings, higher unemployment, less educa...

Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Firm Beliefs: Evidence from a Representative Survey

By Andreas Dibiasi, Heiner Mikosch, and Samad Sarferaz

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2025

This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty sig...

The Debt-Inflation Channel of the German (Hyper) Inflation

By Markus Brunnermeier, Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, Emil Verner, and Tom Zimmermann

American Economic Review, July 2025

This paper studies how a large increase in the price level is transmitted to the real economy through firm balance sheets. Using newly digitized macro- and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919–1923, we show that inflation led to a large re...

Should College Be "Free"? Evidence on Free College, Early Commitment, and Merit Aid from an Eight-Year Randomized Trial

By Douglas N. Harris and Jonathan Mills

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, August 2025

We provide evidence on the effects of college financial aid from an eight-year randomized trial offering ninth graders a $12,000 merit-based grant. The program was designed to be free of tuition/fees at community colleges and substantially lower the cost ...

Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities

By Rebecca Brough, Matthew Freedman, and David C. Phillips

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, August 2025

We conduct a randomized controlled trial to study the employment effects of providing free public transportation to individuals with low incomes. A temporary subsidy that reduces the price of transit to zero has no significant effects on individuals' paid...

Direct and Indirect Effects of Investment Tax Incentives

By Adrian Lerche

American Economic Review, August 2025

This paper estimates the direct effects and indirect spillover effects of investment tax credits on firms. Exploiting a differential tax credit rate change by firm size in the German manufacturing sector, I find that lowering a firm's investment cost by 7...

Employers and Unemployment Insurance Take-Up

By Marta Lachowska, Isaac Sorkin, and Stephen A. Woodbury

American Economic Review, August 2025

We quantify the employer's role in unemployment insurance (UI) take-up. Employer effects on claiming and appeals are substantial, and those effects are negatively correlated, consistent with appeals deterring claims. Low-wage workers are less likely to cl...

The Life-Cycle Implications of Temporary Employment Contracts

By Rosemary Kaiser

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Employment protections often create two-tiered labor markets with substantial differences in job security. I estimate the effects of removing these protections using a quantitative life-cycle model, where younger workers are more likely to select into ...

Labor Market Power, Self-Employment, and Development

By Francesco Amodio, Pamela Medina, and Monica Morlacco

American Economic Review, September 2025

This paper shows that self-employment shapes labor market power in low-income countries, with implications for industrial development. Using Peruvian data, we find that wage-setting power increases with employer concentration but less so where self-employ...

Drivers of Change: Employment Responses to the Lifting of the Saudi Female Driving Ban

By Chaza Abou Daher, Erica Field, Kendal Swanson, and Kate Vyborny

American Economic Review, September 2025

We conduct a field experiment to quantify the impact of the lifting of the Saudi women's driving ban on women's employment by randomizing rationed spaces in driver's training. Treated women are 41 percent more likely to be employed yet are 19 percent less...

Income Equality in the Nordic Countries: Myths, Facts, and Lessons

By Magne Mogstad, Kjell G. Salvanes, and Gaute Torsvik

Journal of Economic Literature, September 2025

Policymakers, public commentators, and researchers often cite the Nordic countries as examples of a socioeconomic model that combines low income inequality with prosperity and growth. This article critically assesses that claim by integrating theoretical ...