Practical Stabilization Policy in the Twenty-First Century

By Martin Eichenbaum

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

In 1997, the American Economic Association convened a panel to address whether a core of usable macroeconomics exists. The consensus about monetary policy has not changed since then. However, in a sharp reversal, there is now widespread consensus that fis...

The Swing Voter's Curse: Comment

By Mark Fey and Jaehoon Kim

American Economic Review, September 2002

The Evolving Core of Usable Macroeconomics for Policymakers

By Jonas Fisher, Bart Hobijn, and Alessandro T. Villa

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Macroeconomic models and policymakers' language have evolved significantly. Today's policy discussions center on New Keynesian (NK) synthesis, which builds on the neoclassical growth model and the AS-AD framework. It incorporates nominal and real rigiditi...

Heterogeneous Agent Models

By Ayşe İmrohoroğlu

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Heterogeneous agent models have become central to modern macroeconomic research, often replacing the representative agent framework. However, what is core for these frameworks is the use of microfoundations that involve optimizing behavior. The strength o...

Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Labor Market: State-Level Evidence

By Céline Poilly and Fabien Tripier

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper provides US state-level evidence regarding the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the labor market. We show that a higher exposure to trade policy uncertainty generates a contraction in total hours worked at the state level. The extensive m...

How Do Firms in Different Sectors Organize Their Supply Chains? Evidence from Transaction-Level Import Data

By Sebastian Heise, Justin R. Pierce, Georg Schaur, and Peter K. Schott

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Heise et al. (2021) develop a model-based empirical measure—sellers per shipment (SPS)—to characterize how firms organize supply chains in response to a quality control problem. High SPS indicates spot-market purchasing with costly inspections, while ...

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty around the World

By Gee Hee Hong, Shikun (Barry) Ke, and Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

How adverse is the impact of fiscal policy uncertainty on economic and financial variables? To answer this question, we construct a novel cross-country database of news-based fiscal policy uncertainty indicators. Importantly, we track fiscal events that a...

Anonymous Attention and Abuse

By Florian Ederer, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, and Kyle Jensen

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We analyze the content of the anonymous online discussion forum Economics Job Market Rumors (EJMR) and document its evolving interactions with external information sources. We focus on three key aspects: the prevalence and impact of links to external doma...

Same as It Ever Was: Gender, Race, and Ethnicity Differences in Promotion for Academic Economists

By Donna K. Ginther, Shulamit Kahn, and Daria Milakhina

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Using 2009–2022 data from Academic Analytics linked to publications and multiple race-identification approaches, we examine gender and racial/ethnicity differentials in economists' promotion in economics and noneconomics departments. Results are mixed. ...

How Does the Intersection of Sex and Nonbinary Gender Identity Affect Hiring Discrimination? Evidence from a Correspondence Field Experiment

By Taryn Eames

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This study examines the intersection of sex and nonbinary gender identity in hiring discrimination using a resume audit study, where sex was signaled via first name and nonbinary identity via "they/them" pronoun disclosure. Results show male and female no...

Targeted Treatment Assignment Using Data from Randomized Experiments with Noncompliance

By Susan Athey, Kosuke Inoue, and Yusuke Tsugawa

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper considers randomized experiments with noncompliance where individuals in the treatment group become eligible for a treatment but some do not receive it. We study the estimation and evaluation of treatment assignment policies targeted to individ...

Instrumental Variables Methods Reveal Larger Effects of Menopausal Hormone Therapy in the Landmark Women's Health Initiative Clinical Trial

By Joshua Angrist, Amanda E. Kowalski, Ljubica Ristovska, and Marcia L. Stefanick

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Landmark results from the Women's Health Initiative trial showed that random assignment to menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) elevated risks of breast cancer and other adverse events. Recent analyses argue that MHT risks are small. These analyses report int...

Mean Reversion in Randomized Controlled Trials: Implications for Program Targeting and Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

By Marcella Alsan, John Cawley, Joseph J. Doyle, and Nicholas Skelley

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Eligibility criteria for interventions can induce an Ashenfelter Dip, and subsequent mean reversion results in improvement over time even absent the intervention. We investigate these dynamics for a food-as-medicine program to treat diabetes, where eligib...

Global Evidence on Children's Living Arrangements

By Anne Ardila Brenøe and Melanie Wasserman

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper provides global evidence on the living arrangements of children, using harmonized census data from 95 countries encompassing 85 percent of the world population. While residing with two parents is the most common living arrangement in nearly eve...

Are Some Firms Better for Women's Careers?

By Garima Sharma ⓡ Shreya Tandon ⓡ Lisa Ho ⓡ Pulak Ghosh ⓡ Stephanie Hao

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper examines whether some firms are systematically better at advancing women's careers, focusing on India's corporate sector. Using an identification strategy based on firms' first-recruitment events at universities, we compare women who join top-r...

School Is Out: Is the Doctor In? Gender Gaps in Holiday Work among Parent Physicians

By Leila Agha, Na'ama Shenhav, and Myles Wagner

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Using linked insurance claims and birth records, we provide new evidence on the gender gap in parents' work among physicians. On typical weekdays, women are 10 percent less likely than men to bill any claims. On minor holidays (e.g. Columbus Day)—when m...

The Contribution of Employee-Led and Employer-Led Work Flexibility to the Motherhood Wage Gap

By Abi Adams, Mathias Fjællegaard Jensen, and Barbara Petrongolo

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We analyze the contribution of job flexibility to the gender wage gap amongst Danish parents with a professional degree. We use a supervised machine learning approach to measure job flexibility from job vacancy text. We distinguish between employee-led an...

Subjective Models of Workers and Managers for Macroeconomic Expectations

By Claudia Bruschi, Francesco D'Acunto, Saten Kumar, and Michael Weber

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We propose a measure of subjective models of the macroeconomy for firms and workers. Subjective models are highly heterogeneous across agents, and their distribution is similar within the groups of firm managers and workers. At the same time, the beliefs ...

Attention, Please! Listening to the Central Bank in Uncertain Times

By Silvia Albrizio, Allan Dizioli, Pedro Simon, and Yifan Zhang

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper investigates how firms' attention to central banks influences monetary policy transmission under varying macroeconomic uncertainty. The paper utilizes the earnings calls-based firm inflation expectations index and a novel attention indicator at...

The Accuracy of Firms' Wage Inflation Expectations

By Lukas Buchheim, Sebastian Link, and Sascha Möhrle

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Much of recent survey-based macroeconomic research studies firms' aggregate price inflation expectations, but little is known about their expectations of own wage inflation. This paper examines the accuracy of wage inflation expectations using novel panel...