Unhoused and Mismeasured: The Accuracy of Surveys of Those Experiencing Homelessness

By Bruce D. Meyer, Angela Wyse, Gillian Meyer, Alexa Grunwaldt, and Derek Wu

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We examine the accuracy of self-reported information from homeless shelter residents in the American Community Survey by comparing survey responses to administrative records. While basic demographic information (age, gender, and citizenship) is reported w...

Universal Access to Counsel, Housing Court Filings, and Child Mental Health: Evidence from New York City

By Mike Cassidy, Janet Currie, Sherry Glied, and Renata E. Howland

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We link data from Medicaid to housing court records to study the relationship between housing instability and children's mental health. Of Medicaid children aged 4–17 in New York City, 14 percent faced housing court from 2016–2019. Using rollout of un...

Labor Market Attachment and Perceived Barriers to Work among Homeless Families

By Nour Abdul-Razzak, John Eric Humphries, Stephen Stapleton, and Winnie van Dijk

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We study labor market attachment among homeless families using baseline survey data from a large-scale study in Illinois. Of homeless parents, 40 percent worked in the past month. Among those not working, most report wanting and actively searching for a j...

Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Labor Market: State-Level Evidence

By Céline Poilly and Fabien Tripier

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper provides US state-level evidence regarding the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the labor market. We show that a higher exposure to trade policy uncertainty generates a contraction in total hours worked at the state level. The extensive m...

How Do Firms in Different Sectors Organize Their Supply Chains? Evidence from Transaction-Level Import Data

By Sebastian Heise, Justin R. Pierce, Georg Schaur, and Peter K. Schott

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Heise et al. (2021) develop a model-based empirical measure—sellers per shipment (SPS)—to characterize how firms organize supply chains in response to a quality control problem. High SPS indicates spot-market purchasing with costly inspections, while ...

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty around the World

By Gee Hee Hong, Shikun (Barry) Ke, and Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

How adverse is the impact of fiscal policy uncertainty on economic and financial variables? To answer this question, we construct a novel cross-country database of news-based fiscal policy uncertainty indicators. Importantly, we track fiscal events that a...

Global Evidence on Children's Living Arrangements

By Anne Ardila Brenøe and Melanie Wasserman

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper provides global evidence on the living arrangements of children, using harmonized census data from 95 countries encompassing 85 percent of the world population. While residing with two parents is the most common living arrangement in nearly eve...

Are Some Firms Better for Women's Careers?

By Garima Sharma ⓡ Shreya Tandon ⓡ Lisa Ho ⓡ Pulak Ghosh ⓡ Stephanie Hao

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper examines whether some firms are systematically better at advancing women's careers, focusing on India's corporate sector. Using an identification strategy based on firms' first-recruitment events at universities, we compare women who join top-r...

School Is Out: Is the Doctor In? Gender Gaps in Holiday Work among Parent Physicians

By Leila Agha, Na'ama Shenhav, and Myles Wagner

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Using linked insurance claims and birth records, we provide new evidence on the gender gap in parents' work among physicians. On typical weekdays, women are 10 percent less likely than men to bill any claims. On minor holidays (e.g. Columbus Day)—when m...

The Contribution of Employee-Led and Employer-Led Work Flexibility to the Motherhood Wage Gap

By Abi Adams, Mathias Fjællegaard Jensen, and Barbara Petrongolo

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We analyze the contribution of job flexibility to the gender wage gap amongst Danish parents with a professional degree. We use a supervised machine learning approach to measure job flexibility from job vacancy text. We distinguish between employee-led an...

Subjective Models of Workers and Managers for Macroeconomic Expectations

By Claudia Bruschi, Francesco D'Acunto, Saten Kumar, and Michael Weber

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We propose a measure of subjective models of the macroeconomy for firms and workers. Subjective models are highly heterogeneous across agents, and their distribution is similar within the groups of firm managers and workers. At the same time, the beliefs ...

Attention, Please! Listening to the Central Bank in Uncertain Times

By Silvia Albrizio, Allan Dizioli, Pedro Simon, and Yifan Zhang

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper investigates how firms' attention to central banks influences monetary policy transmission under varying macroeconomic uncertainty. The paper utilizes the earnings calls-based firm inflation expectations index and a novel attention indicator at...

The Accuracy of Firms' Wage Inflation Expectations

By Lukas Buchheim, Sebastian Link, and Sascha Möhrle

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Much of recent survey-based macroeconomic research studies firms' aggregate price inflation expectations, but little is known about their expectations of own wage inflation. This paper examines the accuracy of wage inflation expectations using novel panel...

Do Inflation Expectations Become More Anchored during a Disinflation Episode? Evidence for Euro Area Firms

By Ursel Baumann, Annalisa Ferrando, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Timo Reinelt

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Does a successful disinflation contribute to the anchoring of inflation expectations? We provide novel survey evidence on the dynamics of euro area firms' inflation expectations during the disinflation episode since 2022. We show that firms' short-term in...

Valuing Information as a Philanthropic Funder

By Dan Brown, Adam Salisbury, and Meika Ball

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

GiveWell directs around $10 million per year to fund new randomized controlled trials. Funding for new research has a high opportunity cost, as it requires us to spend less directly on programmatic activities. However, it may enable us to direct substanti...

Four New Ideas for Systematic Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

By Elizabeth D. Brown and Craig McIntosh

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Systematic learning from pooling available cost-effectiveness analyses is undermined by the low quality and availability of costing data across studies. We present four new ideas for improvement: (i) costing preanalysis plans and reporting templates, (ii)...

Does Gender Tagging Public Works Increase Women's Participation? Experimental Evidence from Haiti, Kenya, and Rwanda

By Tanay Balantrapu, Paul Christian, Lelys Dinarte-Diaz, Felipe Dunsch, Jonas Heirman, Dahyeon Jeong, Erin Kelley, Florence Kondylis, Gregory Lane, and John Loeser

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Public works programs often fail to induce participation by women in dual-headed households, with implications for closing gender gaps in autonomy. We randomize "gender tagging," labeling as "for women" in cash-for-work programs targeting poor households ...

Kindergartens and Intergenerational Mobility

By Philipp Ager, Francesco Cinnirella, Katherine Eriksson, and Viktor Malein

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We evaluate the impact of free public kindergartens in the early twentieth-century United States on intergenerational mobility for children of immigrant and native parents. Using linked Census and newly digitized kindergarten enrollment data, we find that...

Political Polarization and US-Mexico Migration

By María Esther Caballero, Giuseppe Ippedico, and Giovanni Peri

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, i...

Native–Refugee Education Gap

By Cevat Giray Aksoy, Gaurav Khanna, Victoria Marino, and Semih Tumen

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We study the education gap between Syrian refugee children and their Turkish peers using administrative data from Turkiye (2011–2018). Our analysis reveals significant disparities: Refugee students score 8 points lower in mathematics and 13 points lower...