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Manipulation-Robust Prediction

By Daniel Björkegren, Joshua E. Blumenstock, and Samsun Knight

American Economic Review, September 2026

An increasing number of decisions are guided by machine learning algorithms. But when consequential decisions are encoded in algorithms, individuals may strategically alter their behavior to achieve desired outcomes. This paper develops an empirical appro...

Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms’ Financing, and the Macroeconomy

By Julian di Giovanni, Manuel Garcia-Santana, Priit Jeenas, Enrique Moral-Benito, and Josep Pijoan-Mas

American Economic Review

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of public procurement. We exploit novel data to show that procurement eases firms’ borrowing constraints and has persistent effects on firm growth. Using a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous firms, as...

Eclipse of Rent-Sharing: The Effects of Managers’ Business Education on Wages and the Labor Share in the US and Denmark

By Daron Acemoglu, Alex Xi He, and Daniel le Maire

American Economic Review

We provide evidence that CEOs with a business degree reduce wages and the labor share in the US and Denmark. Firms appointing business managers are not on differential trends and do not enjoy higher output, investment, or employment growth thereafter. Usi...

Intermediaries and Asset Prices

By Valentin Haddad and Tyler Muir

Journal of Economic Literature, September 2026

Intermediary asset pricing posits that financial institutions play a central role in financial markets, and that their decisions shape asset prices beyond simply reflecting the preferences of the average household. This perspective helps make sense of key...

Refugees' Economic Integration

By Dany Bahar, Rebecca Brough, and Giovanni Peri

Journal of Economic Literature, September 2026

Refugees are international migrants escaping persecution and crises whose economic success in their countries of destination is threatened by lack of access to labor and credit markets, limited information on employment opportunities, and loss of human ca...