The downside of great expectations

[Research Highlight]

December 21, 2021

How do overly optimistic growth forecasts affect a nation’s economy?

On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism

By Paul Beaudry and Tim Willems

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2022

Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions a few years later. To isolate the causal effect, we take an instrumental variable approach—exploiting randomn...

Fraud and the financial crisis

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Were conflicts of interest the main driver behind the 2008 US housing bust?

Call for Papers: CSWEP at the Western Economic Association International (WEAI)

[News]

January 04, 2022

The deadline for submissions is January 15, 2022.

Webinar: Helping Faculty Help Students get into PhD Programs in Economics

[News]

January 18, 2022

The webinar will be held on January 28, 2022 from 1:00 pm - 2:30 pm EST.

CSWEP Board: Rohan Williamson

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Russell Sage Foundation Opportunities

[News]

January 13, 2022

View upcoming opportunities from the Russell Sage Foundation.

Inverted outcomes resulting from the Electoral College system

[Research Highlight]

January 18, 2022

Michael Geruso discusses why some US presidential candidates win with fewer votes.

Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836–2016

By Michael Geruso, Dean Spears, and Ishaana Talesara

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2022

Inversions—in which the popular vote winner loses the election—have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular v...

Labor Market Returns to Vocational Secondary Education

By Mikko Silliman and Hanna Virtanen

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2022

We study labor market returns to vocational versus general secondary education using a regression discontinuity design created by the centralized admissions process in Finland. Admission to the vocational track increases initial annual income, and this be...

Career training

[Research Highlight]

January 14, 2022

What are the long-run impacts of vocational education on labor market outcomes?

Call for Papers: CSWEP Sessions for ASSA 2023

[News]

January 25, 2022

The deadline for submissions is March 4, 2022.

CSWEP 2022 Business Meeting

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CSWEP 2022 Award

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The income gap in China

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Is there a correlation between urban–rural income disparity and overall inequality?