Manipulation-Robust Prediction

By Daniel Björkegren, Joshua E. Blumenstock, and Samsun Knight

American Economic Review

An increasing number of decisions are guided by machine learning algorithms. But when consequential decisions are encoded in algorithms, individuals may strategically alter their behavior to achieve desired outcomes. This paper develops an empirical ap...

Quantifying the Role of Firms in Intergenerational Mobility

By Caue Dobbin and Tom Zohar

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

We quantify the role of firms in intergenerational mobility using administrative data from Israel. We decompose the intergenerational elasticity of earnings (IGE) into an individual-IGE and a firm-IGE using an AKM framework. The firm-IGE—reflecting t...

Annual Elections and Other Announcements

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April 28, 2026

View the AEA Member Announcement from April 28, 2026.

Reference List Entries for Datasets and Registered Studies

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Committee on Professional Climate

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Shifting Work Patterns with Generative AI

By Eleanor W. Dillon, Sonia Jaffe, Nicole Immorlica, and Christopher T. Stanton

American Economic Review: Insights

We present evidence from a field experiment across 66 firms and 7,137 knowledge workers. Workers were randomly selected to access a generative AI tool integrated into applications they already used at work for email, meetings, and writing. In the secon...

Did Recent Inflation Reflect a Nonlinear Phillips Curve?

By Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier

American Economic Review: Insights

To examine the potential role of a nonlinear Phillips curve in explaining recent US inflation, we combine evidence from both crosscity variation and aggregate time series data. A central challenge relates to how best to control for the potential confou...

ⓡ Random Order of Author Names

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Authors may opt to publish joint papers in random order of coauthors with the symbol ⓡ between author names.

ⓡ Random Order of Author Names

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Authors may opt to publish joint papers in random order of coauthors with the symbol ⓡ between author names.

Monopolistic Data Dumping

By Kfir Eliaz and Ran Spiegler

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

A profit-maximizing monopolist curates a database for users seek- ing to learn a parameter. There are two user types: "Nowcasters" wish to learn the parameter's current value, while "forecasters" target its long-run value. Data storage involves a const...

A Laboratory Test of Flow Trading

By Daniel Friedman, Yilin Li, and Kristian López Vargas

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

Perceived shortcomings in the dominant asset market format, CDA, have provoked reform proposals including Flow, which features gradual trading. We report a laboratory experiment comparing formats in a simple single-asset private values environment. We ...

Labor Market Discrimination and the Racial Unemployment Gap: Can Monetary Policy Make a Difference?

By Isabel Cairó and Avi Lipton

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Black workers experience higher, more volatile unemployment than white workers, a racial dis- parity unexplained by observables. A New Keynesian model with a frictional labor market, endogenous separations, and employer discrimination explains these out...

How Costly Are Cartels?

By Flavien Moreau and Ludovic Panon

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

We study the cost of cartels in an oligopoly model with het- erogeneous firms, endogenous markups, and collusion. Cartels can amplify or dampen misallocation, by charging supracompetitive markups and reallocating demand towards non-colluding firms. Usi...

Disruption and Displacement in Health Care: Evidence from Nursing Home Closures

By Andrew Olenski

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

This paper examines the impacts of health care provider exits on patient outcomes and displacement. Leveraging data on the universe of long-stay nursing home patients, I estimate the mortality effects of 1,104 nursing home closures using a difference-in...

What Does Federal Oversight Do to Policing and Public Safety? Evidence from Seattle

By Romaine A. Campbell

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

This paper investigates how federal oversight not precipitated by a major scandal influences policing behavior and public safety. The high-profile events triggering such scandals can independently affect policing and crime, confounding estimates of over...

Externalities and the Taxation of Top Earners

By Henrik Kleven

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

This paper characterizes the optimal taxation of top earners in a world with externalities. It develops a reduced-form approach that allows for a flexible relationship between top earnings and the distribution of earnings capacities in the population. ...

CSWEP DC

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Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes

By Christian Posso, Jorge Tamayo, Arlen Guarin, and Estefania Saravia

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

This paper studies whether more skilled physicians improve birth outcomes. We exploit a natural experiment in Colombia, where newly graduated physicians were randomly assigned to Local Health Centers (LHCs), to estimate the causal effect of being treate...

Front Matter

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

Vertical Integration and Cream Skimming of Profitable Referrals: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities

By David Cutler, Leemore Dafny, David C. Grabowski, Steven Lee, and Christopher Ody

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We examine whether vertical integration of hospitals and skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) could lessen competition by foreclosing rival SNFs' access to lucrative referrals. We find that it could: Among integrated providers, a 1 percent increase in SNF re...