Labor Market Discrimination and the Racial Unemployment Gap: Can Monetary Policy Make a Difference?

By Isabel Cairó and Avi Lipton

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Black workers experience higher, more volatile unemployment than white workers, a racial dis- parity unexplained by observables. A New Keynesian model with a frictional labor market, endogenous separations, and employer discrimination explains these out...

How Costly Are Cartels?

By Flavien Moreau and Ludovic Panon

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

We study the cost of cartels in an oligopoly model with het- erogeneous firms, endogenous markups, and collusion. Cartels can amplify or dampen misallocation, by charging supracompetitive markups and reallocating demand towards non-colluding firms. Usi...

Disruption and Displacement in Health Care: Evidence from Nursing Home Closures

By Andrew Olenski

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

This paper examines the impacts of health care provider exits on patient outcomes and displacement. Leveraging data on the universe of long-stay nursing home patients, I estimate the mortality effects of 1,104 nursing home closures using a difference-in...

What Does Federal Oversight Do to Policing and Public Safety? Evidence from Seattle

By Romaine A. Campbell

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

This paper investigates how federal oversight not precipitated by a major scandal influences policing behavior and public safety. The high-profile events triggering such scandals can independently affect policing and crime, confounding estimates of over...

Externalities and the Taxation of Top Earners

By Henrik Kleven

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

This paper characterizes the optimal taxation of top earners in a world with externalities. It develops a reduced-form approach that allows for a flexible relationship between top earnings and the distribution of earnings capacities in the population. ...

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Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes

By Christian Posso, Jorge Tamayo, Arlen Guarin, and Estefania Saravia

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

This paper studies whether more skilled physicians improve birth outcomes. We exploit a natural experiment in Colombia, where newly graduated physicians were randomly assigned to Local Health Centers (LHCs), to estimate the causal effect of being treate...

Front Matter

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

Vertical Integration and Cream Skimming of Profitable Referrals: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities

By David Cutler, Leemore Dafny, David C. Grabowski, Steven Lee, and Christopher Ody

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We examine whether vertical integration of hospitals and skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) could lessen competition by foreclosing rival SNFs' access to lucrative referrals. We find that it could: Among integrated providers, a 1 percent increase in SNF re...

Guaranteed Employment in Rural India: Intrahousehold Labor and Resource Allocation Consequences

By Jorge Luis García

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

I investigate the intrahousehold labor and resource allocation consequences of an employment guarantee targeting rural households in India. The guarantee insures household earnings, replacing women as added workers and shutting down a motive for saving. D...

Integrating Out Natural Disaster Shocks

By Franziska Bremus and Malte Rieth

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We study the role of international financial integration in buffering natural disaster shocks, using a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. Natural disasters are largely unpredictable and unrelated to the state of financial integration. We doc...

Adjustable Product Attributes, Indirect Network Effects, and Subsidy Design: The Case of Electric Vehicles

By Kevin Remmy

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

This paper develops a structural model of endogenous product attribute choice in the presence of indirect network effects to study electric vehicle (EV) subsidies. Using data on the German EV market, I find that a support scheme almost doubled EV sales bu...

Harnessing Deductions to Increase Tax Compliance and Formalization

By Albrecht Bohne and Jan Sebastian Nimczik

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We evaluate a tax reform in Ecuador that introduced generous deductions from personal income taxes (PIT), encouraging consumers to request receipts. The reform addresses tax evasion by targeting small self-employed businesses that mainly sell goods or ser...

Tax Compliance in the Rental Housing Market: Evidence from a Field Experiment

By Essi Eerola, Tuomas Kosonen, Kaisa Kotakorpi, and Teemu Lyytikäinen

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We study rental income tax compliance using novel third-party information and a large-scale randomized field experiment. The third-party information combines register data on the ownership and occupancy of apartments. The RCT used this new third-party inf...

Responses to Extreme Temperatures: Migrant Networks and International Migration from El Salvador

By Ana Maria Ibáñez, Juliana Quigua, Maria Jimena Romero, and Andrea Velásquez

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We show that exposure to extreme temperatures significantly increases international migration from El Salvador, where nearly a quarter of the population lives in the United States. Extreme temperatures reduce corn yields, leading producers to decrease the...

The Segregative Effects of Charter Schools

By Angela Crema

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

I study the effects of charters on student racial segregation, identifying a novel mechanism: the assignment of White and non-White students to regular classrooms within their school-grade. Exploiting almost 100 entries of elementary charters in North Car...

The Big Short (Interest): Closing the Loopholes in the Dividend-Withholding Tax

By Elisa Casi, Evelina Gavrilova, David Murphy, and Floris T. Zoutman

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We study the effect of stricter enforcement of the dividend-withholding tax (DWT). We focus on a 2016 Danish enforcement reform and compare Denmark to its Nordic neighbors. Throughout the Nordic stock markets, shares on loan spike sharply around dividend ...

Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries: How Much Does It Pour and Why?

By Francisco Arroyo Marioli and Carlos A. Vegh

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

A large literature has documented that fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging markets/developing countries and acyclical/countercyclical in advanced economies. This paper analyzes fiscal procyclicality in commodity-exporting countries. The paper makes t...

State Recreational Cannabis Laws and Racial Disparities in the Criminal Legal System

By Angélica Meinhofer, Adrian Rubli, and Jamein P. Cunningham

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We estimate the direct and spillover effects of cannabis legalization on longstanding racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes. We find that legalization reduces cannabis possession and sales arrests for White and Black populations, narrowing but n...

Prediction Errors, Incarceration, and Violent Crime: Evidence from Linking Prosecutor Surveys to Court Records

By Emma Harrington, William III Murdock, and Hannah Shaffer

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

Incarceration is often justified by a defendant's risk of future crime. To what extent do biased beliefs about predictors of crime distort incarceration decisions? We survey prosecutors about how violent rearrest rates vary by defendant age and criminal h...