The Accuracy of Firms' Wage Inflation Expectations

By Lukas Buchheim, Sebastian Link, and Sascha Möhrle

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Much of recent survey-based macroeconomic research studies firms' aggregate price inflation expectations, but little is known about their expectations of own wage inflation. This paper examines the accuracy of wage inflation expectations using novel panel...

Do Inflation Expectations Become More Anchored during a Disinflation Episode? Evidence for Euro Area Firms

By Ursel Baumann, Annalisa Ferrando, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Timo Reinelt

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Does a successful disinflation contribute to the anchoring of inflation expectations? We provide novel survey evidence on the dynamics of euro area firms' inflation expectations during the disinflation episode since 2022. We show that firms' short-term in...

Valuing Information as a Philanthropic Funder

By Dan Brown, Adam Salisbury, and Meika Ball

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

GiveWell directs around $10 million per year to fund new randomized controlled trials. Funding for new research has a high opportunity cost, as it requires us to spend less directly on programmatic activities. However, it may enable us to direct substanti...

Four New Ideas for Systematic Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

By Elizabeth D. Brown and Craig McIntosh

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Systematic learning from pooling available cost-effectiveness analyses is undermined by the low quality and availability of costing data across studies. We present four new ideas for improvement: (i) costing preanalysis plans and reporting templates, (ii)...

Does Gender Tagging Public Works Increase Women's Participation? Experimental Evidence from Haiti, Kenya, and Rwanda

By Tanay Balantrapu, Paul Christian, Lelys Dinarte-Diaz, Felipe Dunsch, Jonas Heirman, Dahyeon Jeong, Erin Kelley, Florence Kondylis, Gregory Lane, and John Loeser

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Public works programs often fail to induce participation by women in dual-headed households, with implications for closing gender gaps in autonomy. We randomize "gender tagging," labeling as "for women" in cash-for-work programs targeting poor households ...

Kindergartens and Intergenerational Mobility

By Philipp Ager, Francesco Cinnirella, Katherine Eriksson, and Viktor Malein

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We evaluate the impact of free public kindergartens in the early twentieth-century United States on intergenerational mobility for children of immigrant and native parents. Using linked Census and newly digitized kindergarten enrollment data, we find that...

Political Polarization and US-Mexico Migration

By María Esther Caballero, Giuseppe Ippedico, and Giovanni Peri

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, i...

Native–Refugee Education Gap

By Cevat Giray Aksoy, Gaurav Khanna, Victoria Marino, and Semih Tumen

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We study the education gap between Syrian refugee children and their Turkish peers using administrative data from Turkiye (2011–2018). Our analysis reveals significant disparities: Refugee students score 8 points lower in mathematics and 13 points lower...

Home-Country Internet and Immigrants' Well-Being

By Alexander Yarkin

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper documents the effects of home-country internet expansion on immigrants' health and subjective well-being (SWB). Combining data from the European Social Survey with data on 3G and overall internet expansion, I find that immigrants' SWB increases...

Job Tasks, Leadership, and the Gender Gap after Parenthood

By Daniel Tannenbaum and Brenden Timpe

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We use linked US survey and administrative data to provide new evidence on the job tasks performed by women and men around parenthood. We develop an occupation-level measure of leadership task intensity. Leadership has an increasing and concave age profil...

Home Sweet Home: How Much Do Employees Value Remote Work?

By Zoë Cullen, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We provide revealed-preference evidence on employee value for remote work and on the wage-setting strategies adopted by employers for in-person versus remote work. Using data on the job offers and selections of over 3,000 employees in the US tech sector, ...

Work Hours and Amenity Trade-Offs

By César Garro- Marín, Neil Thakral, and Linh T. Tô

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We present a compensating wage differentials model that incorporates complementarity and substitutability in firms' provision of amenities and workers' preferences for them. These interactions help explain why some amenities tend to be bundled, while othe...

Cross-Gender Social Ties around the World

By Michael Bailey, Drew Johnston, Theresa Kuchler, Ayush Kumar, and Johannes Stroebel

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We introduce, describe, and analyze subnational data on cross-gender friendships for nearly 200 countries and territories, using data from 1.38 trillion ties between 1.8 billion Facebook users. Homophily by gender exists nearly everywhere, with individual...

Workplace Segregation between College and Noncollege Workers

By Francis Dillon, Edward L. Glaeser, and William Kerr

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We measure the level and growth of educational segregation in US workplaces from 2000 to 2020. US workplaces showed an educational segregation, measured by the degree to which the establishment has mostly workers of similar education levels, that is compa...

ESG Is the Most Polarizing Nonwage Amenity: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Brazil

By Emanuele Colonnelli, Tim McQuade, Gabriel Ramos, Thomas Rauter, and Olivia Xiong

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We examine job seekers' heterogeneous preferences for nonwage amenities, with a focus on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, using an incentivized field experiment in Brazil. Our findings reveal that ESG is the most polarizing nonwage a...

Does Unilateral Decarbonization Pay for Itself?

By Adrien Bilal and Diego R. Känzig

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper shows that unilateral decarbonization pays for itself in large economies. We estimate economic damages based on global temperature shocks and combine them with a climate-economy model to construct domestic costs of carbon: $226 per ton for the ...

The Shape of Regulation: 40 Years of Florida Flood Maps

By Abigail Ostriker and Anna Russo

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Many regulations are geographically targeted. We study the evolution of the spatial targeting of floodplain regulation over four decades of regulatory map updates in Florida. We focus on changes in shape irregularity of regulated areas, measured using dif...

Housing Supply and Natural Hazards within and across US Cities

By Augusto Ospital

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper investigates the link between housing supply restrictions and increased exposure to natural hazard risks in the United States, considering a wide range of extreme climate threats. It shows that urban growth has heightened exposure to these risk...

Private Markets and Public Assistance for Natural Disaster Supplies

By Michael Dinerstein, Nadia Lucas, Ishan Nath, and Johanna Rayl

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We document existing allocation mechanisms for natural disaster survival goods, such as flashlights, batteries, food, and water and show that Americans face widespread and frequent exposure to natural disasters, that disasters bring a substantial risk of ...

The Political Economy of Geoeconomic Power

By Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Great powers are increasingly using their economic and financial strength for geopolitical aims. This rise of "geoeconomics" has the potential to reshape the international trade and financial system. This paper examines the role of domestic political econ...