Fiscal Stimulus and the Systematic Response of Monetary Policy

By Christian K. Wolf

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

Economic theory suggests that the effects of fiscal stimulus can vary substantially with the systematic response of monetary policy. Empirical estimates of the causal effects of fiscal shocks implicitly embed a particular monetary reaction: they provide t...

The Importance of Fed Chair Speeches as a Monetary Policy Tool

By Eric T. Swanson

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

I estimate the effects of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, and speeches and Congressional testimony by the Fed chair on stock prices, Treasury yields, and interest rate futures from 1988 to 2019. I show that...

Measuring the Share of Imports in Final Consumption

By Emmanuel Dhyne, Ayumu Ken Kikkawa, Magne Mogstad, and Felix Tintelnot

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We use Belgian data on domestic firm-to-firm transactions and ask how the measurement of the share of imports in final consumption is affected when one uses data recorded at higher levels of aggregation. We find that aggregating detailed firm-to-firm tran...

Sprouting Cities: How Rural America Industrialized

By Fabian Eckert, John Juneau, and Michael Peters

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We study the joint process of urbanization and industrialization in the US economy between 1880 and 1940. We show that only a small share of aggregate industrialization is accounted for by the relocation of workers from remote rural areas to industrial hu...

New Measurement of Export Participation in US Manufacturing

By Christoph E. Boehm, Aaron Flaaen, and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We measure export participation rates in the US manufacturing sector using a new administrative dataset and compare them to participation rates constructed from the commonly used census of manufacturers (CM). At both the establishment and firm levels, exp...

Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation: The Short- and Long-Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe

By Lorenzo Caliendo, Luca David Opromolla, Fernando Parro, and Alessandro Sforza

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion of Ukraine. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, ...

Distributional Impacts of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement

By Brian K. Kovak and Peter M. Morrow

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We examine the effects of the 1988 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on employment and earnings inequality among low-, medium-, and high-income Canadian workers initially employed in manufacturing. Although the FTA tariff cuts drove large changes in tr...

Labor Mobility and Unemployment over the Business Cycle

By Andrea Foschi, Christopher L. House, Christian Proebsting, and Linda L. Tesar

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We estimate the responsiveness of net labor migration to regional differences in unemployment rates across the United States since the mid-1970s. Our baseline estimate suggests an elasticity of roughly -0.3. For typical labor force participation ratios, a...

Matching Pell Grants: Implications for College Debt and Parental Transfers

By Patricia Beeson, Daniele Coen-Pirani, Jessica LaVoice, and Marla Ripoll

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We study the causal effect of the net price of college on student debt, schooling investment, and parental transfers by exploiting a natural experiment. A large public US university introduced a program to match Pell Grants in academic year 2019–2020. W...

The Effects of Higher Student Loan Limits on Access to High-Earnings Graduate Programs

By Jeffrey T. Denning and Lesley J. Turner

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

Graduate student debt is the predominant form of financial aid for postbaccalaureate students and represents almost half of outstanding student debt, yet little is known about the effect of publicly funded graduate loans on student outcomes. To fill this ...

The Insurance Implications of Government Student Loan Repayment Schemes

By Martin Gervais, Qian Liu, and Lance Lochner

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We use new administrative data that link detailed information on Canadian student loan recipients with their repayment and income histories from the Canada Student Loans Program, income tax filings, and postsecondary schooling records to measure the exten...

Data Markets with Privacy-Conscious Consumers

By Rossella Argenziano and Alessandro Bonatti

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We study data linkages among heterogeneous firms and examine how they shape the outcome of privacy regulation. A single consumer interacts sequentially with two firms: one firm collects data on consumer behavior, and the other firm leverages the data to s...

Privacy and the Value of Data

By Simone Galperti and Jacopo Perego

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

How does protecting consumers' privacy affect the value of their personal data? We model an intermediary that uses consumers' data to influence prices set by a seller. When privacy is protected, consumers choose whether to disclose their data to the inter...

Consumer Control and Privacy Policies

By S. Nageeb Ali, Greg Lewis, and Shoshana Vasserman

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

Firms use consumer data to price discriminate. In response, policymakers have pushed for consumers to have control over their data so that they choose what to share and with whom. We model consumer control and its effect on markets through the lens of vol...

The Short-Term Labor Supply Response to the Expanded Child Tax Credit

By Brandon Enriquez, Damon Jones, and Ernie Tedeschi

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We estimate the extensive and intensive margin labor supply response to the monthly Child Tax Credit disbursed in 2021 as a part of the American Rescue Plan Act. Using Current Population Survey microdata, we compare labor supply outcomes among households ...

The Effects of the Monthly and Lump-Sum Child Tax Credit Payments on Food and Housing Hardship

By Zachary Parolin, Elizabeth Ananat, Sophie Collyer, Megan Curran, and Christopher Wimer

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We investigate the effects of the expanded 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC) on material hardship among households with children over April 2021–May 2022, using the Census Household Pulse Survey and difference-in-difference analyses of household types with di...

The 2021 Child Tax Credit: Who Received It and How Did They Spend It?

By Katherine Michelmore and Natasha V. Pilkauskas

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

In March of 2021, Congress passed a one-year expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC), creating a temporary, near-universal child benefit. Despite expanding eligibility to millions of previously ineligible children living in low-income households, only two...

The Impact of COVID-19 on Workers' Expectations and Preferences for Remote Work

By Yuting Chen, Patricia Cortes, Gizem Kosar, Jessica Pan, and Basit Zafar

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We study how COVID-19 affected the prevalence, expectations, and attitudes toward remote work using specially designed surveys. The incidence of remote work remains higher than prepandemic levels, and both men and women expect this to persist postpandemic...

Selection Bias in Voluntary Random Testing: Evidence from a COVID-19 Antibody Study

By Deniz Dutz, Michael Greenstone, Ali Hortaçsu, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Danae Roumis, Azeem M. Shaikh, Alexander Torgovitsky, and Winnie van Dijk

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We use data from a serological study that experimentally varied financial incentives for participation to detect and characterize selection bias. Participants are from neighborhoods with substantially lower COVID-19 risks. Existing methods to account for ...

Gendered Disparities during the COVID-19 Crisis in Sierra Leone

By Madison Levine, Niccolò F. Meriggi, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Vasudha Ramakrishna, Maarten Voors, and Uday Wadehra

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

The COVID-19 outbreak had severe adverse impacts on the health and wealth of households in lower-income countries (LICs), and has affected even more severely female-headed households in LICs. Using high-frequency phone surveys in Sierra Leone, we show tha...