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Stages of Diversification

By Jean Imbs and Romain Wacziarg

American Economic Review, March 2003

This paper studies the evolution of sectoral concentration in relation to the level of per capita income. We show that various measures of sectoral concentration follow a U-shaped pattern across a wide variety of data sources: countries first diversify, i...

A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Deficits

By Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi

American Economic Review, December 2025

We develop a tractable framework for deficit and debt dynamics. A "free lunch" fiscal deficit—one that raises spending without higher future taxes—is sustainable without zero lower bound (ZLB) only when R < G − φ, where φ is the sensitivity of the...