Long-Run Risk Is the Worst-Case Scenario

By Rhys Bidder and Ian Dew-Becker

American Economic Review, September 2016

We study an investor who is unsure of the dynamics of the economy. Not only are parameters unknown, but the investor does not even know what order model to estimate. She estimates her consumption process nonparametrically—allowing potentially infinite-o...

Free to Choose? Reform, Choice, and Consideration Sets in the English National Health Service

By Martin Gaynor, Carol Propper, and Stephan Seiler

American Economic Review, November 2016

Choice in public services is controversial. We exploit a reform in the English National Health Service to assess the effect of removing constraints on patient choice. We estimate a demand model that explicitly captures the removal of the choice constraint...

Do Consumers Exploit Commitment Opportunities? Evidence from Natural Experiments Involving Liquor Consumption

By B. Douglas Bernheim, Jonathan Meer, and Neva K. Novarro

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2016

This paper provides evidence concerning the extent to which consumers of liquor employ commitment devices. One widely recommended commitment strategy is to regulate alcohol consumption by deliberately manipulating availability. The paper assesses the prev...

The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on Tobacco Products, Tar, and Nicotine Purchases among Adults: Evidence from Household Panel Data

By Chad Cotti, Erik Nesson, and Nathan Tefft

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2016

We analyze the Nielsen Household Consumer Panel to estimate the effects of tobacco policies on tobacco-related purchases using within-household variation. We also match purchases to cigarette contents from NHANES. Higher cigarette taxes reduce cigarette p...

Workers' Spending Response to the 2011 Payroll Tax Cuts

By Grant Graziani, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2016

This paper investigates workers' spending response to the 2011 payroll tax cuts. Respondents were surveyed at the beginning and end of 2011, which allows the comparison of ex ante and ex post reported use of the extra income. While workers on average inte...