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  4. February 2014
  5. The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons

The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons

  • Alessandro Barbarino
  • Giovanni Mastrobuoni
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
vol. 6, no. 1, February 2014
(pp. 1-37)
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Abstract

We estimate the "incapacitation effect" on crime using variation in Italian prison population driven by eight collective pardons passed between 1962 and 1990. The prison releases are sudden (within one day), very large (up to 35 percent of the entire prison population), and happen nationwide. Exploiting this quasi-natural experiment we break the simultaneity of crime and prisoners and, in addition, use the national character of the pardons to separately identify incapacitation from changes in deterrence. The elasticity of total crime with respect to incapacitation is between -17 and -30 percent. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that Italy's prison population is below its optimal level.

Citation

Barbarino, Alessandro, and Giovanni Mastrobuoni. 2014. "The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 6 (1): 1-37. DOI: 10.1257/pol.6.1.1

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • K42 Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
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