This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women's fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil's expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go pension system in the long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons.
Danzer, Alexander M., and Lennard Zyska.
"Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence."
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy,
Social Security and Public Pensions
Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration