Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation
AEA Papers and Proceedings
vol. 113,
May 2023
(pp. 47-51)
Abstract
With the profusion of measures of expected inflation (from market prices and from surveys of households, firms, and professionals), it is a mistake to focus on a single one while ignoring the others. This paper discusses four common arguments for a single focus and finds each of them to be lacking. In the process, it isolates characteristics of different measures that models that combine them should take into account.Citation
Reis, Ricardo. 2023. "Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 113: 47-51. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231033Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D84 Expectations; Speculations
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G20 Financial Institutions and Services: General