Within-Occupation Changes Dominate Changes in What Workers Do: A Shift-Share Decomposition, 2005–2015
AEA Papers and Proceedings
vol. 110,
May 2020
(pp. 394-99)
Abstract
This paper measures aggregate changes in job characteristics in the United States from 2005 to 2015 and decomposes those changes into components representing shifts within occupations and changes in occupational employment shares. Per our title, within-occupation changes dominate, raising doubts about the ability of projections based on expected changes in the occupational composition of employment to capture the likely future of work. Indeed, our data show only weak relationships between automatability, repetitiveness, and other job attributes and changes in occupational employment. The results suggest that analysts give greater attention to within-occupation impacts of technology in assessing the future of work.Citation
Freeman, Richard B., Ina Ganguli, and Michael J. Handel. 2020. "Within-Occupation Changes Dominate Changes in What Workers Do: A Shift-Share Decomposition, 2005–2015." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110: 394-99. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201005Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- J21 Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- J24 Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- J60 Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers: General
- J21 Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- J24 Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- J60 Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers: General