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Can African countries deter industrial fishing vessels from near-shore waters reserved
for artisanal fishers? Using radar data released in 2024, this paper provides the first
causal evaluation of these Inshore Exclusion Zones (IEZs). Regression discontinuity
estimates reveal deterrence in 6 of 20 African countries. Next, we apply bunching
estimators to obtain counterfactual vessel distributions uncontaminated by spillovers
outside IEZ boundaries. We capture extensive-margin effects by calibrating a discrete
choice vessel location model to our bunching estimates. Bioeconomic calculations indicate
that IEZs increase artisanal fisher catch by enough to meet key micronutrient
requirements for 7 million people.
