AEA Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions
AEA Papers and Proceedings
(pp. 646–651)
Abstract
This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time Automatic Identification System maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks. Exploiting cross-product variations in exposure, we estimate both the average and dynamic effects of shipping delays on consumer prices, finding that a 100-hour delay raises inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak.Citation
Jiao, Yang, Ting Lan, Yang Liu, and Xinrui Zhou. 2026. "From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions." AEA Papers and Proceedings 116: 646–651. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261119Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
- F23 Multinational Firms; International Business
- L14 Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation; Networks
- L92 Railroads and Other Surface Transportation