AEA Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
How Many (Half) Moons? Measuring Technology Adoption from the Sky and on the Ground
AEA Papers and Proceedings
(pp. 173–177)
Abstract
Measuring technology adoption is central to evaluating development policies, yet standard approaches face trade-offs between accuracy, cost, and scalability. Using data from a randomized controlled trial in Niger, we compare four methods for measuring adoption of demi-lunes, an agricultural technology: direct observation, survey self-reports, manual satellite-based observation, and satellite imagery with machine learning (SIML). Treating direct observation as ground truth, we quantify measurement error on extensive and intensive margins and assess trade-offs between costs and error at project and policy scales. We find that self-reports perform well at both scales, while satellite-based methods scale cheaply but generate significant measurement error.Citation
Aker, Jenny C., Jennifer Burney, Alison Campion, B. Kelsey Jack, and Chuan Liao. 2026. "How Many (Half) Moons? Measuring Technology Adoption from the Sky and on the Ground." AEA Papers and Proceedings 116: 173–177. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261091Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C45 Neural Networks and Related Topics
- O12 Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O13 Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
- O32 Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
- Q12 Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
- Q15 Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
- Q16 Agricultural R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services