AEA Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
AI-Accelerated Occupational Decline and the Mobility Trap
AEA Papers and Proceedings
(pp. 246–250)
Abstract
Economic transformation challenges workers beyond job creation or loss by reshaping their ability to move across occupations. This paper examines whether AI-driven occupational restructuring, accelerated after 2018 by transformer-based technologies, creates a “mobility trap” for workers in declining, high-AI-exposed occupations. Using BLS administrative data and CPS worker transitions, we analyze who moves, where they move, and with what outcomes. We find that while these workers are more mobile, they are 5.2 times more likely to move into another declining occupation than a growing one. Nearly 70 percent experience downward or lateral mobility, suggesting that AI-driven restructuring entrenches disadvantage rather than enabling upward mobility.Citation
Song, Xi, Jennie E. Brand, Sukie Xiuqi Yang, and Michael Lachanski. 2026. "AI-Accelerated Occupational Decline and the Mobility Trap." AEA Papers and Proceedings 116: 246–250. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261004Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- J22 Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- J23 Labor Demand
- J62 Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion