American Economic Review: Vol. 101 No. 3 (May 2011)


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Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys

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Anderson, Soren T., Ryan Kellogg, James M. Sallee, and Richard T. Curtin. 2011. "Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys." American Economic Review, 101(3): 110-14.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.3.110


This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.

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Anderson, Soren T. (MI State U)
Kellogg, Ryan (U MI)
Sallee, James M. (U Chicago)
Curtin, Richard T. (Institute for Social Research, U MI)

JEL Classifications

C53: Forecasting Methods; Simulation Methods
D12: Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
L71: Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply
Q47: Energy Forecasting

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