American Economic Review: Vol. 104 No. 5 (May 2014)

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The Determinants of the Macroeconomic Implications of Aging

Article Citation

Sheiner, Louise. 2014. "The Determinants of the Macroeconomic Implications of Aging." American Economic Review, 104(5): 218-23.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.218

Abstract

The aging of the US population undoubtedly will be associated with macroeconomic changes. In particular, some combination of lower consumption growth and increased labor input will ultimately be required. But, the timing of these changes can have important effects on variables like the rate of return to capital and wages. If the adjustment to consumption is slow, which would be the case if budget deficits were allowed to rise significantly as the population ages, then aging is likely to be associated with an increase in the return to capital and a reduction in wages.

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Authors

Sheiner, Louise (Federal Reserve Board)

JEL Classifications

E24: Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital
E21: Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
H55: Social Security and Public Pensions
H62: National Deficit; Surplus
J13: Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J14: Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-labor Market Discrimination
J31: Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials


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