Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries: Constraints on Adaptation and Mechanisms for Relaxing Them
Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM
- Chair: Vis Taraz, Smith College
Do Social Protection Programs Foster Short‐Term and Long‐Term Migration Adaptation Strategies?
AbstractThis paper examines how migration is influenced by temperature and precipitation variability, and the extent to which the receipt of a cash transfer affects the use of migration as an adaptation strategy. Climate data is merged with georeferenced panel data (2010‐2014) on individual migration collected from the Zambian Child Grant Program (CGP) sites. We use the person‐year dataset to identify the direct and heterogeneous causal effects of the CGP on mobility. Having access to cash transfers doubles the rate of male, short‐distance moves during cool periods irrespective of wealth. Receipt of cash transfers(among wealthier households) during extreme heat causes an additional retention of males. Cash transfers positively spur long‐distance migration under normal climate conditions in the long term. They also facilitate short‐distance responses to climate, but not long‐distance responses that might be demanded by future climate change.
Has Climate Change Driven Structural Transformation in India?
AbstractCrop yields in India are projected to decrease significantly as temperatures rise and climate
change accelerates. It is critical to understand how agricultural households can adapt to these changes. Recent research demonstrates that sectoral shifts (e.g. into industry) can cushion the blow of short‐term weather shocks, but the importance of sectoral shifts in mitigating longer‐term climate losses has not been explored. In this paper, the authors use census data spanning 60 years (1961‐2011) to explore how long‐run changes in climate have driven short‐distance migration, urbanization, and structural transformation. The authors find that rising temperatures are associated with less intra‐district migration, lower urbanization, and higher shares of workers in the agricultural sector. These robust findings suggest evidence of a poverty trap, in which adverse climate shocks exacerbate the liquidity constraint faced by rural households and limit the pace of structural transformation. However, the authors also find that improved market access, in the form of better developed road networks, can soften this poverty trap effect.
- Q5 - Environmental Economics