Understanding the Link between Temperature and Crime
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
vol. 16,
no. 2, May 2024
(pp. 480-514)
Abstract
The correlation between hot weather and crime is well documented but not fully understood. We combine millions of administrative records, victimization surveys on unreported crime, and daily weather information to analyze the effect of temperatures on crime in Mexico. We find that sample selection cannot explain the observed positive correlation between temperature and crime. Moreover, we find that shifts in alcohol consumption and time use on weekends are responsible for 28 percent of temperature-induced crimes. We also observe changes in the hour and location of crimes, providing new evidence on the importance of time use as a determinant of crime.Citation
Cohen, François, and Fidel Gonzalez. 2024. "Understanding the Link between Temperature and Crime." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 16 (2): 480-514. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20220118Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D91 Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
- K42 Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
- O13 Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
- O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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