During World War I the birth rate in France fell by 50%. Why?
I build a model of fertility choices where the war implies a positive
probability that a wife remains alone, a partially-compensated loss
of a husband's income, and a temporary decline in productivity
followed by faster growth. I calibrate the model's key parameters
using pre-war data. I find that it accounts for 91% of the decline
of the birth rate. The main determinant of this result is the loss
of expected income associated with the risk that a wife remains
"Fertility and Wars: The Case of World War I in France."
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: Europe: Pre-1913
Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: Europe: 1913-
Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: Europe: 1913-