Current and expected unemployment rates contain information that is highly useful to estimate the effect of news about TFP and to allow a general equilibrium rational expectations model to generate Pigouvian cycles: a large fraction of the comovement of output, consumption, investment, employment, and real wages is explained by noise about TFP. These results emerge because of the low-frequency negative relationship between unemployment and TFP growth. The model predicts that the start (end) of most US recessions is associated with agents realizing that previous enthusiastic (lukewarm) expectations about future TFP would not be met.
Faccini, Renato, and Leonardo Melosi.
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects