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Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 12 No. 2 (Spring 1998)

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The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting

Article Citation

Diebold, Francis X. 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(2): 175-192.

DOI: 10.1257/jep.12.2.175

Abstract

Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting, which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years, however, powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed and structural macroeconomic forecasting is poised for resurgence.

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Authors

Diebold, Francis X. (U PA and NBER)

JEL Classifications

E17: General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation
C53: Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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