Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022 12:15 PM - 2:15 PM (EST)
- Chair: Lucy Eldridge, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Effect of Aging on Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity
AbstractThis paper documents an inverted-U relationship between firm sales, sales per worker and entrepreneurship rate with entrepreneur age in Japan. To understand the implications of these patterns for aggregate productivity, we model these facts with a general equilibrium occupational choice model with endogenous entrepreneur rate, TFP and labor quality. We calibrate the model and simulate the change in output per capita and entrepreneurship rate when the age distribution in the population changes according to official projections. Preliminary results suggest that aging may lower aggregate productivity through a left shift in the productivity distribution of potential workers and entrepreneurs.
Intangible Capital and Productivity Growth in 61 Industries
AbstractEvidence shows that intangibles are now growing more rapidly than other forms of capital. It is therefore important to understand how intangibles contribute to productivity growth. Information already exists on investments in R&D, artistic originals, and software in each of our 61 industries. Our work examines the impact of each of these intangibles, and adds data on advertising as a potential further intangible. We also consider whether the rate of return to intangibles found in industry data is equivalent to the returns typically found within firm data. Finally, we examine whether advertising tends to be central in consumer industries, whereas R&D is instead more important in capital goods industries.
Chaos Before Order: Productivity Patterns in U.S. Manufacturing
AbstractWithin-industry productivity dispersion is pervasive and exhibits substantial variation across countries, industries, and time. We build on prior research that explores the hypothesis that periods of innovation are initially associated with a surge in business start-ups, followed by increased experimentation that leads to rising dispersion potentially with declining aggregate productivity growth, and then a shakeout process that results in higher productivity growth and declining productivity dispersion. Using novel detailed industry-level data on total factor productivity and labor productivity dispersion from the Dispersion Statistics on Productivity along with novel measures of entry rates from the Business Dynamics Statistics and productivity growth data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for U.S. manufacturing industries, we find support for this hypothesis, especially for the high-tech industries. An increase in entry rates in a two-year period t is associated with an increase in dispersion and decrease in aggregate productivity growth in two-year period t+1 and a decrease in dispersion and increase in aggregate productivity growth in two-year period t+2.
- O0 - General
- J0 - General