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  3. 2021
  4. Preliminary Program
  5. The Long Shadow of Communism
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The Long Shadow of Communism

Paper Session

Monday, Jan. 4, 2021 3:45 PM - 5:45 PM (EST)

Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Scott Gehlbach, University of Chicago

Enemies of the People

Pierre-Louis Vézina
,
King’s College London
Gerhard Toews
,
New Economic School

Abstract

Enemies of the people were the millions of intellectuals, artists, businessmen, politicians, professors, landowners, scientists, and affluent peasants that were thought a threat to the Soviet regime and were sent to the Gulag, i.e. the system of forced labor camps throughout the Soviet Union. In this paper we look at the long-run consequences of this dark re-location episode. We show that areas around camps with a larger share of enemies among prisoners are more prosperous today, as captured by night lights per capita and firm productivity. We also show that firms near Gulags with a larger share of enemies are not only more productive but also pay higher wages to more educated workers. Our results point in the direction of a long-run persistence of education and a resulting positive effect on local economic outcomes.

Stalin and the Origins of Mistrust

Milena Nikolova
,
University of Groningen and Brookings Institution
Olga Popova
,
Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS)
Vladimir Otrachshenko
,
Justus Liebig University Giessen

Abstract

We examine current differences in trust levels within countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) and trace their origins back to the system of forced labor during the time of Stalin, which was marked by high incarceration rates and harsh punishments. We argue that those exposed to forced labor camps (gulags) became less trusting and transferred this social norm to their descendants and communities. Combining contemporary survey data with the geolocation of forced labor camps, we find that living near former gulags lowers social and institutional trust and civic engagement. These effects are above and beyond any experiences with war or civil conflict previously documented in the literature, indicating that the repressiveness of the gulag system is the main trigger of the culture of mistrust that exists within the FSU today.

Coercion, Battlefield Performance, and Victory in Modern War

Jason Lyall
,
Dartmouth College
Yuri M. Zhukov
,
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor

Abstract

Existing theories of combat motivation and military effectiveness largely dismiss the utility of coercing one's own soldiers to fight. Yet nearly 20 percent of all belligerents in modern wars fought since 1800 have employed specialized units ("blocking detachments") authorized to kill faltering or retreating soldiers. What remains unclear, however, is whether these units boost the combat fortunes of armies or merely hasten their battlefield collapse. We marshal two types of evidence to examine whether these units improve battlefield performance and the odds of eventual victory. First, we draw on a new dataset, Project Mars, detailing the nature and deployment of these blocking detachments and their association with broader war outcomes. We then use new microlevel evidence from the personnel records of 30 million Red Army soldiers in World War II, to estimate the effect of blocking detachments on Soviet soldiers' battlefield performance against Nazi Germany.

Double-Edged Sword: Persistent Effects of Communism on Life Satisfaction in Eastern Europe

Vladimir Otrachshenko
,
Justus Liebig University Giessen
Milena Nikolova
,
University of Groningen and Brookings Institution
Olga Popova
,
Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS)

Abstract

Communism was a two-edged sword for those trusted by the former regime. Communist party members and their relatives enjoyed status, privileges, and connections. At the same time, secret police informants were coerced to work clandestinely and gather compromising materials about friends, colleagues, and neighbors. After the fall of Communism, CEE countries and the Baltics exposed informants and regime collaborators, while most of the FSU countries have not done so. Using the 2016 Life in Transition Survey, we examine the long-term consequences of connections to the communist regime for satisfaction in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU). In the FSU, we find that individuals with connections to the former Communist party are more satisfied, but those who themselves served as informants to the secret police or had relatives coerced to do that are less satisfied with their lives than those without such connections. The life satisfaction premium for being associated with the former Communist party is, on average, equivalent to monthly household income. At the same time, the costs of being an informant are equivalent to two monthly household incomes. The opposite holds in the CEE and Baltics, There, former Communist party connections negatively influence present-day life satisfaction, and this loss is equivalent to a third of monthly income, but secret service informant ties do not matter. We also empirically test channels that may explain those effects. The findings underscore that the Communist party connections have a persistent but differential effect on life satisfaction.
Discussant(s)
Scott Gehlbach
,
University of Chicago
Steven Nafziger
,
Williams College
Natalya Naumenko
,
George Mason University
Ira Gang
,
Rutgers University
JEL Classifications
  • N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
  • O1 - Economic Development