Topics in International Trade & Finance, R&D Investment, and Trade & Financial Sanctions Against Iran
Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020 12:30 PM - 2:15 PM (PDT)
- Chair: Joseph Pelzman, George Washington University
The Economic Effects of the Re-Imposed United States Sanctions on Iran and Its Spillover on MENA, the PRC, Russia and Turkey
AbstractThe focus of this paper is designed to identify the alternative countries within MENA that could potentially replace Iranian exports, and those that could replace Iran as an import market as sanctions are re-imposed. In addition to identifying potential substitute suppliers within MENA, the paper also examines the unintentional consequences of re-imposing sanctions in a world where the USG does not have complete compliance from its partners, and/or may encounter active challenge from non-allied countries. Specifically, the paper finds that China looms as the overwhelming unintended beneficiary of the re-imposition of the Iranian sanctions. The other countries that share benefits are Turkey and Russia. None of these countries are expected to comply with the re-imposition of sanctions.
The paper also presents the econometric simulations of the magnitude of the potential trade displacement impacts arising from further sanctions on Iran, and presents the projected alternative trade channels both within and outside of MENA through which the sanction’s impacts on third countries could be mitigated
The Nexus between Remittances, Institutional Quality and Financial Inclusion
AbstractThis paper uses dynamic panel data method to investigate the nonlinear effect of remittance inflows on financial inclusion in high remittance-receiving developing countries for the period of 2011-2017. The paper found that initially remittances contribute negatively to financial inclusion which is measured by an opening bank account and then positively at a later stage. In the early periods, the use of remittances seemed to be unproductive. However, with the passage of time increasing remittances associated with better institutional quality, proxied by trust and bureaucracy, were witnessed to lead to more productive utilization. In contrary to the existing literature stating that remittances foster financial inclusion, our evidence show that the effect of remittances on opening bank account is conditional on the level of inflow of remittances and people perception about institutions. The results suggest the impact of remittances on financial inclusion is in the form of U-shape. Policy implications of findings are evaluated.
After a Decade of Turbulence, Do Banks in MENA Sound Sound? A Tale of Two Shocks Oil and Social Unrest
AbstractThis paper examines the effect of economic growth and macroeconomic policies on banks’ soundness in MENA over the past decade period 2007–2017. The one-step system GMM estimator is used to test the persistence of banks’ soundness in Oil-exporters and -importers in the MENA region. The region has been subject to several social and economic shocks that have sever implications on the banking sector soundness and is testing the resilience of the sector in many countries in the region.
The main questions that we ask in this paper is two folds. First, what is the impact of macroeconomic policy and growth on the soundness of the banking sector in oil-importers and -exporters MENA region. Second, how do oil prices affect banking soundness in oil-importers and -exporters in MENA?
Disruptions to World Trade by Recent US Trade Policies
AbstractTrade is crucial to the global economy, which is demonstrated by the overall rise in the fortunes of most countries since the mid-1900s. However, just over the past year, the United States government has disrupted the patterns of US trade by threatening or imposing trade barriers on its long-term trading partners. International companies are caught in the trade disputes between governments. Trade barriers disrupt supply chains, increase costs, and increase risk through uncertainty. This study examines the effects of trade disruptions on companies that trade from and with the United States. Results demonstrate the folly of the latest political disorder to the US and world economies.
- F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization
- O3 - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights