The United States Economy: Growth, Stagnation or New Financial Crisis
Friday, Jan. 3, 2020 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (PDT)
- Chair: Dominick Salvatore, Fordham University
Productivity Origins of “Secular Stagnation"
AbstractThe sluggish growth of the US economy since 1973, interrupted only by temporary bursts of higher growth during the dot-com boom and the housing boom, has led to fears of “secular stagnation” and calls for government aggregate demand stimulus to lift the growth rate of the economy. I argue that the fundamental source of sluggish real per capita growth in the U.S. is sluggish growth of labor productivity. Government policies can propel the economy to a higher growth path only if they generate a sustained increase in labor productivity. I consider what policies might be successful.
The Next Systemic Financial Crisis
AbstractDeep systemic financial crises tend to be infrequent events, as they leave deep lasting scars on the psyche of consumers, investors, politicians and regulators. Normally, especially given strengthened regulation and, one would not expect another systemic event for many decades. But the situation today is anything but normal. Record high global public and private debt combined with political paralysis and extraordinarily weak leadership outside central banks make today’s uncharacteristically fragile at this point in the debt supercycle.
Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Expansion 2009-2019
AbstractThe U.S. economic expansion that, according to the NBER dates, began in June 2009, after the world financial crisis, appears to have set a new record for length, over a decade. At the same time, the unemployment rate as of April 2019 fell to 3.6%, the lowest in almost fifty years. Stock, Bond and Housing Markets went to extreme highs. This paper describes constellations of viral economic narratives that arguably affected individual economic behavior and helped drive these phenomena. The results may help us anticipate the quality and severity of the next recession.
The Future of American Fiscal Policy
AbstractThe combination of secular stagnation and low interest rates along with half century record low levels of Federal revenue collections pose major challenges for American fiscal policy. Planning for a strong fiscal response to the next recession should begin now. So should planning for a significant increase in Federal revenues and a strengthening of Social Security
- E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
- E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles