Friday, Jan. 4, 2019 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM
- Chair: Wenlan Qian, National University of Singapore
Financial Fragility with SAM?
AbstractShared Appreciation Mortgages (SAMs) feature mortgage payments that adjust with house prices. These mortgage contracts are designed to stave off home owner default by providing payment relief in the wake of a large house price shock. SAMs have been hailed as an innovative solution that could prevent the next foreclosure crisis, act as a work-out tool during a crisis, and alleviate fiscal pressure during a downturn. They have inspired fintech companies to offer home equity contracts. However, the home owner's gains are the mortgage lender's losses. A general equilibrium model with financial intermediaries who channel savings from saver households to borrower households shows that indexation of mortgage payments to aggregate house prices increases financial fragility, reduces risk sharing, and leads to expensive financial sector bailouts. In contrast, indexation to local house prices reduces financial fragility and improves risk-sharing. The two types of indexation have opposite implications for wealth inequality.
Collateral Misreporting in the RMBS Market
AbstractSecuritized mortgage appraisals routinely target pre-specified valuations, 45% of purchase loan appraisals exactly equal purchase prices, and appraisals virtually never fall below purchase prices. As a result, appraisals exceed automated valuation model (AVM) valuations 60% of the time and are biased upward by an average of 5%. Appraisal bias predicts loan delinquency and RMBS losses and is priced at the loan level through higher interest rates, but it has essentially no impact on RMBS pricing. Selection bias simulations and unfunded loan application appraisals indicate that appraisal bias is intentional, and appraisal bias varies across loan officers, mortgage brokers, and appraisers.
- G0 - General