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Expectations in Household Finance

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 5, 2019 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM

Hilton Atlanta, 205-206-207
Hosted By: American Finance Association
  • Chair: Francesco D'Acunto, Boston College

New Experimental Evidence on Expectations Formation

Augustin Landier
,
HEC Paris
Yueran Ma
,
Harvard University
David Thesmar
,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Abstract

In this paper, we measure belief formation in an experimental setting where agents are
incentivized to provide accurate forecasts of a random variable, drawn from a stable and
simple statistical process. Using these data, we estimate an empirical model that builds on the
recent literature on expectation dynamics: It nests rational expectations, but also allows for
extrapolation and under-reaction. Our findings are threefold. First, the rational expectation
hypothesis is strongly rejected in our setting, and we find little evidence or learning. Second,
both extrapolation and underreaction patterns are statistically discernible in the data, but
extrapolation quantitatively dominates. Third, our model coefficients are very robust to
changes in experimental setting: They do not depend on process parameters, individual
characteristics or framing. These large and stable deviations from rationality occur even
though the forecasting exercise is simple and transparent.

Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership

Manuel Adelino
,
Duke University
Antoinette Schoar
,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Felipe Severino
,
Dartmouth College

Abstract

This paper shows that while a majority of US households (71%) believes that housing is a “safe” investment, renters are much more likely to perceive housing as risky. Current housing decisions as well as future intentions to buy versus rent are strongly correlated with perceptions of house price risk. Households’ exposure to housing risk due to financial constraints, expected mobility or labor income risk are important factors for housing choices but do not mitigate the impact of risk perceptions. Finally, renters are slower to update beliefs about the riskiness of housing in response to past (local) house price changes.

The Long-lasting Effects of Experiencing Communism on Financial Risk-Taking

Christine Laudenbach
,
Goethe University Frankfurt
Ulrike Malmendier
,
University of California-Berkeley
Alexandra Niessen-Ruenzi
,
University of Mannheim

Abstract

We analyze the long-term effects of living under communism and its anti-capitalist doctrine on financial risk-taking. Utilizing comprehensive German brokerage data, we show that decades after reunification East Germans still invest significantly less in the stock market than West Germans. Consistent with communist friends-and-foes propaganda, East Germans are more likely to hold stocks of companies in communist countries (China, Russia, Vietnam), and are particularly unlikely to invest in American companies or the financial industry. Effects are stronger for individuals for whom we expect stronger emotional tagging, for example those living in communist “showcase cities" or cities of Olympic gold medalists. In contrast, East Germans with negative experiences of the communist system, e. g., those experiencing environmental pollution and suppression of religious beliefs and those without access to (Western) TV entertainment, invest more in the stock market today. Election years appear to have trigger effects inducing East Germans to reduce their stock-market investment further. We provide evidence of negative welfare consequences, as indicated by investment in more expensive actively managed funds, less diversified portfolios, and lower risk-adjusted returns.

Thy Neighbor’s Misfortune: Peer Effect on Consumption

Sumit Agarwal
,
National University of Singapore
Wenlan Qian
,
National University of Singapore
Xin Zou
,
Hong Kong Baptist University

Abstract

Using a large, representative sample of credit and debit card transactions in Singapore, we study the consumption response of individuals whose same-building neighbors experienced personal bankruptcy. The unique bankruptcy rules in Singapore suggest liquidity shocks drive personal bankruptcy and the bankrupts experience severe consumption decrease afterwards. Peers’ monthly card consumption decreases by 3.4 percent over the one-year post-bankruptcy period. We find no occupation concentration in the bankruptcy-hit buildings, no consumption decrease among individuals in immediately adjacent buildings, or for consumers with diminished post-event social ties with the bankrupt individual. Our findings imply a significant social multiplier effect of 0.8-1.2 times the original consumption shock. The response is more pronounced for consumers with greater interaction and is equally strong in the conspicuous and non-conspicuous goods.
Discussant(s)
Nicola Gennaioli
,
Bocconi University
Edward Glaeser
,
Harvard University
Luigi Guiso
,
European University Institute
Michael Weber
,
University of Chicago
JEL Classifications
  • G2 - Financial Institutions and Services