Politics, and Bubbles
Saturday, Jan. 5, 2019 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM
- Chair: Yongheng Deng, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Local Political Chief Turnover and Economic Growth: Evidences from China
AbstractIt is widely believed that the rotation and promotion system of local political chiefs plays an important role in Chinas economic miracle. In this paper, however, we focus on the potential cost of the inherent frequent local chief turnovers. Based on a new manually-collected dataset on prefectural-level local chiefs between 1983 and 2012, the empirical results suggest that CCP chief turnover would lead to a 0.35 percentage points decrease of local GDP growth rate in the current year, and 0.23 percentage points decrease in the following year. This effect especially concentrates on government-controlled fields, such as investment, fiscal revenue and expenditure. We also provide evidences that the organization friction, especially the successor CCP chiefs familiarity with the city and the colleagues, is a major reason of such negative turnover effect.
Speculating on Superstition: Evidence from Housing Transactions in Hungry Ghost Months in Singapore
AbstractThis paper aims to study equilibrium outcomes of superstition and behaviors of superstitious and non-superstitious investors around the Hungry Ghost months in Singapores housing market. We find that superstitious Chinese homebuyers pay 1.41% lower in average per square meter price for houses bought in the Hungry Ghost month than houses bought outside the Hungry Ghost month, but within the same Western calendar year. We find that older Chinese aged above 40 years obtain larger price discounts relative to younger Chinese homebuyers and homebuyers of other ethnicity groups; and the results reflect a composition effect in the housing market. We find that young Chinese investors are non-superstitious, and are more likely to speculate on the Hungry Ghost effects than other ethnicity groups. However, their investment strategies of timing buy-and-sale activities around the Hungry Ghost month do not yield significant abnormal returns.
Spatial Estimates of Bubbles: Tokyo House Prices and Rents
Abstract"House sale and rental prices usually lie at the heart of the growing literature examining house price bubbles. In these studies, time series price-to-rent ratios are most commonly used. However, the characteristics of houses on sale and rental units are different and exhibit spatial variations. In this paper, we spatial estimates of house prices and rents, based on the locally weighted quantile approach and the decomposition. The geographic quantile version of locally weighted regressions can
place greater weight on observations closer to the target point, which produces unique quantile coefficients for each observation. This approach allows the distribution of predicted values to vary smoothly over space. Based on a spatial version of decomposition, the counterfactual prediction of price-to-rent ratio is estimated for each individual unit. The methodology is applied to a large sample of condominium sale and rent micro level data in Tokyo over 1986-2016, which covers the greatest bubble of the Japanese market. The results show large variation in price-to-rent ratio
over time and space. The estimated spatial price-to-rent ratios are higher in large and new units."
- R1 - General Regional Economics
- D9 - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics