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Economics of Transportation II

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 5, 2019 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM

Hilton Atlanta, 303
Hosted By: Transportation and Public Utilities Group
  • Chair: Richard Fowles, University of Utah

Vision Zero and Traffic Injury Prevention in New York City

Kristin Mammen
,
City University of New York
Hyoung Suk Shim
,
City University of New York
Bryan Weber
,
College of Staten Island

Abstract

We examine the effect of a vehicle speed limit reduction on New York City streets on traffic injuries and fatalities. The reduction, part of Mayor de Blasio’s Vision Zero Action Plan to improve traffic safety, cut speed limits of 30 MPH to 25 MPH beginning November 2014. We create a balanced panel dataset by using the New York Police Department’s monthly traffic injury and fatality statistics, and detailed records of Vision Zero safety initiatives implemented on NYC streets such as speed limits, traffic signal retiming, and redesign of selected intersections and corridors. The data vary by month and the 9,407 NYC streets, and provide an extensive set of control variables: each NYC street’s Vision Zero safety attributes, streets’ ZIP Code location fixed effects, and spatio-temporal indicator variables such as month and year fixed effects. We then analyze count models, Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, to estimate the effect of the speed limit reduction on traffic injuries and fatalities. We find that speed limit reduction significantly decreases traffic injuries and fatalities for streets treated by the reduced speed limits for the new speed limit.

Aircraft Noise Pollution, Soundproofing, and Lagging House Price Adjustments: Evidence from the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

Felix L. Friedt
,
Macalester College
Jeffrey Cohen
,
University of Connecticut

Abstract

Soundproofing of homes is one approach to mitigating the impacts of airport noise. A lack of available information on soundproofing, however, has limited the ability of researchers to utilize this as an identification strategy for estimating the causal impacts of noise on house prices. In this paper, we focus on Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP), and examine the airport noise impacts on housing prices by using two soundproofing initiatives for MSP as an identification strategy. We use information on properties that were eligible for soundproofing, after the soundproofing initiatives, to identify the causal impact of noise on house prices. We find that the magnitudes of the noise impacts on housing prices are approximately 2\% per decibel, and are statistically significant. These findings hold up to a broad range of specifications and robustness checks. Our findings are the first known results that depend on using soundproofing eligibility to identify the causal impacts of noise on house prices. We also calculate an estimated return on investment (ROI) for residential soundproofing, and find that this ROI could reach as high as 40\% in the areas around MSP.

Motor Vehicle Fatalities from the Perspective of Sturdy Values: The Autonomous Vehicle Effect

Peter D. Loeb
,
Rutgers University
Richard Fowles
,
University of Utah

Abstract

Motor vehicle crashes continue to result in large numbers of fatalities each year and represent the leading cause of death for young persons. This study is the first to examine specifically the effects of a set of focus variables thought to be major contributors to motor vehicle fatalities including distractions caused by, e.g., cellphones, suicidal propensities among others (including the changing effect of vehicle speed on fatalities) using a newly developed Bayesian technique designed to measure the sturdiness of the results. The analysis is conducted using a rich panel data set for the period 1980 to 2014 by state and the District of Columbia which includes motor vehicle, economic, and driver related variables. As mentioned, the analysis makes use of a new Bayesian statistic developed by Edward Leamer, i.e., S-values. This statistic summarizes both estimation uncertainty and model ambiguity by considering millions of potential models of motor vehicle fatalities.

Adoption of Electric Vehicles: Manufacturers’ Incentive and Government Policy

Jing Shao
,
University of International Business and Economics
Hangjun Yang
,
University of International Business and Economics
Anming Zhang
,
University of British Columbia

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a game theoretic model to address three key questions: First, under a given government policy, what are auto manufacturers’ incentives for electric vehicles (EV) adoption? Second, under what conditions is it socially optimal to adopt EVs? Third, how should a social planner design policies to elicit the social optimum in terms of EV adoption?

Sources of Gain in Airline Merger: Evidence from China Eastern and Shanghai Airlines

Chun-Yu Ho
,
State University of New York-Albany
Patrick McCarthy
,
Georgia Tech University
Yanhao Wang
,
Indiana University

Abstract

This paper examines the motives behind the horizontal merger between China Eastern and Shanghai Airlines in 2009. We develop testable hypotheses, incorporating the two merging airlines, their domestic rivalries, and relevant airports into a unified framework. Our results based on an event study approach show that the merging airlines, namely China Eastern and Shanghai Airlines, experience significantly positive abnormal returns around the days of merger announcement. There are also evidences showing their rivals and hub airport experience positive abnormal returns. These results are robust to the use of alternative samples, estimation period and event window, and are confirmed by analyst forecasts and long-run stock performance. Further, we find positive long-run operating performances of the merged airline relative to their rivals. Our results suggest that the sources of gain for the merging firms are market power, efficiency improvement and bargaining power towards its hub airports. The increased market power and cost saving through efficiency improvement and bargaining a lower input price contribute to two-third and one-third of the positive wealth effect of the merger, respectively.
Discussant(s)
James Peoples
,
University of Wisconsin
Misak Avetisyan
,
Texas Tech University
Jeffrey Cohen
,
University of Connecticut
Volodymyr Bilotkach
,
Newcastle University
Edward Yu
,
University of Tennessee
JEL Classifications
  • L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
  • L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities